Tomorrow's WSJ will carry a story by Steve Russolillo, noting that only five of the thirty blue-chip stocks have accounted for a full one-third of the Dow Jones rally since the Lehman meltdown. The Dow five, doubling in four and a half years, included IBM, up 147%. It did not include HP, which he noted at the end of the article is the ONLY company down since the Lehman debacle -- down 20%.
The article actually does a nice job of pointing out that price gains don't translate directly into Dow gains -- Bank of America was up more than 200% vs IBM's 147%, yet only contributed 63 points to the Dow change vs. IBM's 942 points, due to how price/volume weightings are done.
Russolillo also points out that Boeing, Caterpiller and Chevron were the biggest contributors in the 2001-2007 run-up, but then Boeing, Caterpillar, and 3M trashed the Dow the most in the meltdown. Sound familiar? "What have you done for me lately?"
And over at Apple, the story today is that their new iPad wristwatch will be the big profit maker for Apple next year. Should we tell 'em about the HP-01, codenamed Cricket?
The big story was that watches today are a $60B market worldwide, with huge profit margins, and OF COURSE Apple will sweep the field. Remember Microma?
The story the last time, and history NEVER repeats itself, was that the 100+ handheld calculator and chip manufacturers who built digital watches THOUGHT it was about accurate time, which an old analog Swiss watch could never do. It turned out then that watches were jewelry, not functional. My guess is there's still a lot of truth in that.
If I'm wrong, maybe Meg can get the wizards in the outsourced R&D labs to give her a clone within a couple of years. Might save this line next time-- A"ll but one of the Dow's current components have risen since March 2009.... Hewlett-PackardHPQ +2.00% is the lone laggard; the stock has fallen 20% since March 2009. Sixteen of the components have more than doubled in almost four years. American Express AXP +1.96% has rallied the most, jumping 503%. Write to Steven Russolillo at firstname.lastname@example.org